The extraordinary growth in solar energy has been stopped in its tracks as a result of the global pandemic. Many new projects that would have made 2020 the largest growth year for the sector to date have been put on hold for the foreseeable future. Luckily, the stalled growth of the solar sector is just that – projects have simply been put on hold. As the world transitions to a new post-pandemic society, growth in solar power generation will resume its upward trajectory. While two decades of growth in the solar energy sector has been stunted by the coronavirus pandemic, the outlook for the future remains positive.
Instead of a push towards renewable energy, the world should be focused on a push towards clean energy. Those two terms are often used interchangeably especially when green energy advocacy groups are pressuring policymakers to campaign for the use of wind, solar, and electric vehicles. But as the world pushes towards clean energy during the green revolution and begins the transition to renewables, we must ask ourselves: with the shift away from fossil fuels, what is the true cost of clean, green, renewable energy?
The cost to produce a barrel of oil varies throughout the world and impacts the determination of global benchmark prices. If only a portion of global supply is economic at current commodity prices, global demand will be what influences the price floor. Once inventories are drawn down, supply/demand economics will drive up the price of oil to ensure supply can meet demand. Be sure to check out the periodical below for an in depth analysis of the economic price to produce a barrel of oil around the world, and why global demand will be the driver for oil prices to set a $55-60/bbl floor for the foreseeable future.
At the end of March during the peak of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve was authorized to buy tens of billions of dollars in corporate bonds from the energy industry. These actions, paired with those taken by the Federal Government to save the oil and gas industry, were met with harsh criticism because the industry was struggling long before the global pandemic and seemed to simply be delaying the inevitable.
Hydrocarbons are the largest global energy source, and demand for them has been growing rapidly in the past decade. Unfortunately, that progress was stunted with the recent global pandemic that shut down economies and societies worldwide. As the world recovers from the coronavirus, hydrocarbons will be in high demand in order to fuel the progress of the human race. The final piece of our four part series on post-COVID oil demand will investigate the overall change in global oil demand in a post-COVID world.
Transportation allows people and ideas to move from place to place and is the backbone for advancing society. Unfortunately, the global pandemic has hindered the movement of people in the first half of 2020. As individuals begin to venture back out into the world, the transportation sector, and by association the consumption of hydrocarbons that fuel these vehicles, will be completely changed. Fear and social distancing guidelines will force individuals away from mass transit. Reduced options and capacity will force individuals away from air travel. Both will result in increased personal vehicle travel well into the future. Part three of our four part series on post-COVID oil demand will investigate the change in global oil demand for fuel used in personal transportation.
The coronavirus pandemic has ushered in a new age and as the world begins to adjust to the new normal, demand for commodities like oil and natural gas has and will continue to change. Due to lockdown orders and social distancing guidelines, many individuals altered their in person shopping habits to online ordering. As a result, the freight industry has been able to remain busy during the pandemic ensuring goods reach their final destination in a timely manner. This demand does not appear to be going away anytime soon. Part two of our four part series on post-COVID oil demand will investigate the change in global oil demand for fuel used in freight transportation.
The coronavirus pandemic has ushered in a new age and as the world begins to adjust to the new normal, demand for commodities like oil and natural gas has and will continue to change. While individuals may not be traveling via airplane or driving their cars as much as before the pandemic, there are many goods and materials created from hydrocarbons that will continue to be a necessary staple for the reestablishment of a healthy global economy. Part one of our four part series on Post-COVID oil demand will investigate the change in global oil demand for petrochemicals and construction materials.
Financial markets attempted to buoy benchmark prices as oil and gas markets became volatile in Q1 2020. This created a disconnect in the price spreads between the NYMEX WTI futures benchmark and regional spot prices. The disconnect continued to grow at the beginning of the year until it reached a tipping point in April when prices plunged. Ultimately supply and demand at the regional level through purchasers like storage companies, airlines, and refineries will be what control the true value of crude prices and bring the market back into equilibrium.
The dual black swan events of the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price war have created a unique analytical opportunity within petroleum products. As oil prices crashed, natural gas prices have largely remained unchanged due to the markets in which the commodities are used. Transportation which is the main use of oil has almost entirely stopped, whereas electricity generation and heating, the destination for most natural gases has remained similar to pre-2020 levels. Such modifications to consumption caused markets to go haywire and commodity prices to crash. With crude production cuts now occurring at a faster pace than anticipated and states lifting restrictions, supply and demand dynamics for liquids compared to natural gas has changed since April. As the United States begins returning to normal, an update to these commodity market assumptions is in order.
The worst of the coronavirus induced oil crash seems to have bottomed out as storage inventories saw fairly dramatic drawdowns in the final weeks of May, a reversal of events from the past several months. Such relief may be all but eliminated in the ensuing week as an influx of nearly fifty million barrels of foreign crude oil is about to reach the U.S. Gulf and West coasts. The volume of incoming crude may offset most of the production cuts generated by domestic operators and extend low oil prices until the inventories can be worked back down.
The dual black swan events of 2020 have thrown supply and demand far out of equilibrium but with China purchasing crude again and various parts of the United States starting to open back up, global oil demand is beginning to return. As the world begins to recover to pre-pandemic levels, market forces will support the shift back towards equilibrium just like the shift we are currently seeing in China.
President & CEO of RARE PETRO, Anthony D. McDaniels, sat down with Kathryn Mills of The Crude Audacity Podcast to discuss the assault on the PetroDollar LIVE on Facebook and YouTube. It was an energetic discussion on today’s Global Oil Market and what it means for the strength of the American Oilfield, American Energy Security, and American Global Influence. While their conversation was lively, it was not quite long enough to dive deep into the complex intricacies fueling this Oil War. Check out our analysis below!
There is a strong inverse relationship between crude storage levels seen at the Cushing, Oklahoma facility and WTI futures price. This relationship exists even though the storage facility only holds a percentage of total domestic crude inventory. In fact, data suggests that in order for crude prices to stabilize above $55 per barrel, inventory in Cushing will need to drop below 47.5 million barrels, or about 62% storage utilization at the facility.
Over the past month, a disconnect between crude prices and the value of oil companies has manifested itself in the market and until supply and demand fundamentals bring the regional crude prices, futures commodity prices, and equity valuations back into equilibrium, a tiered price disconnect will continue to exist.
Speculator sentiment towards future pricing of commodities can create a wedge between regional and benchmark prices even though they are based on the same supply-demand principles. As long as financial markets continue to buoy WTI futures, these price spreads will continue to widen.
The dual black swan events of the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price war have created a unique analytical opportunity within petroleum products as the strip price for natural gas is showing larger percentage increases than crude or NGLs because the market is pricing in the assumption that continued electricity demand will not fall as quickly as the oversupply of natural gas.
Members of the group dubbed OPEC+ have (nearly) come to an agreement upon global production cuts, but the market has failed to respond. Does this spell disaster for the industry?
Will Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting lead to global production cuts or will talks fall apart and end without a deal?
Action must be taken in order to bring supply and demand back into balance by imposing production quotas. The Texas Railroad Commission is the only domestic governing body that has the immediate power to prorate production, and thus the only entity that has the power to save this drowning industry.