Tag: demand

Post-COVID Global Oil Demand Update – EOY 2020 & the Impact of Second-Wave Shutdowns

Data shows world crude oil demand in the first quarter of 2020 declined by the largest volume in history – even exceeding declines during the 2009 financial crisis. As economic recovery resumes, the demand for hydrocarbons will begin to rise and will quickly surpass pre-pandemic levels. While the timeline has been delayed as a result of a second wave of lockdowns and sustained travel restrictions, people around the world will still need plastics for their daily activities, roads and vehicles to travel from place to place, goods and services created and shipped with hydrocarbons, and other consumables derived from crude oil. While initial recovery estimates by RARE PETRO, the IEA, and EIA have changed, hydrocarbon demand will still eventually recover to pre-pandemic levels for several reasons.

Falling Short of Demand

The year 2020 has certainly been a wild one in all aspects of both society and the global economy, but has also left the global petroleum industry in disarray. When global oil demand eventually returns to pre-pandemic levels and ultimately continues to grow, will the world have enough crude to meet demand for the upward trajectory of energy consumption? According to Rystad Energy, the answer is no. They predict the world is on track to run out of sufficient oil supplies to meet its needs through 2050, despite lower future demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the accelerating energy transition. There may not be enough supply in the next 30 years unless exploration speeds up significantly and exploratory capital expenditures of at least $3 trillion is put to the task.

Does The World Really Want High Oil Prices?

With global economies opening back up with the release of a vaccine for the global pandemic, global oil demand is returning and with it, higher oil prices. Unfortunately for consumers, higher oil prices mean higher prices at the pump in addition to increased costs of many manufactured goods. Since hydrocarbons are wound deep into nearly every facet of our society, price changes are inevitably felt in many sectors of the economy. As oil prices rise, associated production costs will be passed through to consumers rather than kept at the bottom line of operators or refineries. When oil prices rise in the near term, it will be better for investors and the remaining companies in the industry at the expense of people consuming the final products produced.

Opinion Piece: How Will OPEC+ Respond?

There is no denying global oil demand is on the rebound, and unfortunately it may be slowed by a new round of lockdowns gripping the United States and Europe from a second wave of the global pandemic. Even though many countries in the OPEC+ group rely on oil revenues to support their national economies, RARE PETRO anticipates they will most likely continue overall production cuts instead of boosting output in January. Regardless of whether or not the current production cuts of 7.7 MMBPD are extended, any move by OPEC+ to keep cuts above 5.8 MMBPD beyond January should be received favorably by the market and may give oil prices additional upward momentum.

Bullish Natural Gas Markets

A highly contested election, global pandemic, and historically low oil prices have grabbed headlines in recent months but there has been little focus on the surging natural gas market. In recent weeks, natural gas rose to prices not experienced in over a year and a half when the Henry Hub gas benchmark climbed to a 19-month high in late October. With a cold winter ahead, a historic Hurricane season in full swing, depressed oil production, and soaring LNG exports; the gas futures market remains strong and will maintain its upward momentum into the foreseeable future.

Opinion Piece: Fearing The Second Wave

covid-19

A second wave of the coronavirus pandemic is tearing its way through Europe and there is no question whether or not the rest of the world will eventually follow. The surge in coronavirus cases in many major developed oil-consuming economies has rekindled fears that oil demand recovery is again off track, and market balancing is still further away. Luckily, those fears are misplaced as a second wave of shutdowns may not take as large of a dent out of global demand as individuals have begun to resume their day to day lives. Therefore, global oil demand recovery will not be derailed as fear of the virus is likely not going to keep people locked up anymore.

Brent-WTI Crude Price Spread: An Ever-Changing Dynamic In Commodity Futures

The price spread between the world’s most traded crude oil blends and the most actively traded commodities in the world generally track one another, but divergences often reflect technical, supply/demand, or geopolitical issues. Over the course of history, the spread between Brent crude and WTI blends has grown, shrunk, crossed paths, and reversed again countless times. As a result of reduced U.S. pipeline constraints, ongoing OPEC+ production cuts, and China purchasing record amounts of WTI crude oil, the spread between Brent and WTI crude oil prices has begun to shrink close to zero. The future may hold a reversal giving WTI prices the upper hand.

The Slide in Supply: Why Oil Supply is Lower than You Think

When the coronavirus pandemic destroyed global crude oil demand, supply was slow to respond until dramatic actions were taken. Now, with demand picking up at a rapid rate, supply is again being outpaced by its counterpart drawing down crude oil inventories around the world. While global forecasting agencies and oil companies alike predict slow demand growth to pre-pandemic levels, the supply picture will continue to lag behind well into the foreseeable future.

Consumer Demand and Refinery Run Recovery

COVID-19’s impact on the aviation industry has been significant, but the decrease in demand for jet fuel is a only drop in the crude oil bucket. With the media focusing so much of their attention on jet fuel decimation, market participants are associating this fact to the overall global demand picture. Until the media’s portrayal of oversupply in processed aviation fuels is corrected, the negative demand outlook for the oil industry as a whole cannot be fixed.

Crude Drawdowns and Price Disconnects

As crude oil demand was decimated at the start of the global coronavirus pandemic, storage around the world began to rapidly fill causing commodity prices to tank. The supply and demand imbalance was corrected when producers came together to make global production cuts thus stabilizing prices. When economies began to restart and consumers began to leave their homes, demand started to climb to outpace supply. As storage levels began to fall, prices remained constant but when there was a tiny inventory build at the beginning of September, prices went into a freefall highlighting the growing disconnect between free market principles of supply and demand and emotion driving the actual price of crude oil. Instead of following commodity principles, pricing has become largely influenced by market sentiment.

Oil Profitability Around the World

The cost to produce a barrel of oil varies throughout the world and impacts the determination of global benchmark prices. If only a portion of global supply is economic at current commodity prices, global demand will be what influences the price floor. Once inventories are drawn down, supply/demand economics will drive up the price of oil to ensure supply can meet demand. Be sure to check out the periodical below for an in depth analysis of the economic price to produce a barrel of oil around the world, and why global demand will be the driver for oil prices to set a $55-60/bbl floor for the foreseeable future.

Post-COVID Global Oil Demand Series – Part 2: Freight Transport

The coronavirus pandemic has ushered in a new age and as the world begins to adjust to the new normal, demand for commodities like oil and natural gas has and will continue to change. Due to lockdown orders and social distancing guidelines, many individuals altered their in person shopping habits to online ordering. As a result, the freight industry has been able to remain busy during the pandemic ensuring goods reach their final destination in a timely manner. This demand does not appear to be going away anytime soon. Part two of our four part series on post-COVID oil demand will investigate the change in global oil demand for fuel used in freight transportation.

Differential Price Recovery: How Regional Forces Are Bringing Benchmark Prices Back Towards Equilibrium

Financial markets attempted to buoy benchmark prices as oil and gas markets became volatile in Q1 2020. This created a disconnect in the price spreads between the NYMEX WTI futures benchmark and regional spot prices. The disconnect continued to grow at the beginning of the year until it reached a tipping point in April when prices plunged. Ultimately supply and demand at the regional level through purchasers like storage companies, airlines, and refineries will be what control the true value of crude prices and bring the market back into equilibrium.