Thirsty Thursday: An Inventory Report (11/17/22)

Posted: November 18, 2022
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Welcome back to another Thirsty Thursday, the most entertaining hydrocarbon inventory report on the internet! My apologies for getting the report out late this week, midterm season is in full swing now. Anyways, let’s get into a quick review of the numbers this past week. Oh but first, mix up a Cranberry Orange Whiskey Sour in preparation for some festivities next week.

Photo by Adam Jaime on Unsplash

Fairly huge draw this week! Likely another result of low SPR inventory draws that have been used to make up for demand lately. The EIA forecasted a much smaller draw of just under half a million barrels, and reported a 5.4 million barrel draw.

The EIA and API were consistent this week, both forecasting around half a million barrels and reporting an actual draw of 5.4 and 5.8 million.

While scheduled deliveries from the SPR are no longer a factor when considering inventory numbers, there are still a few yet to happen that must be delivered before December 31st. Below is the updated SPR stock count as of November 11th. Between the 4th and the 11th 4 million barrels were withdrawn. Increased production capacity is another big factor at play in this weeks draw.

Here are the updated graphs of weekly crude oil stock in the country. The past seven weeks have flip-flopped between draws and builds, will we see that streak continue into next week? And on the right we can see that this year’s weekly stock levels are right on the verge of slipping below the 5 year range.

This weeks U.S. crude oil inventories according to the EIA

Forgive me for updating this kind of late, these oil price graphs are from a few days after the above graphs, but hey, that just means they are more up-to-date! WTI and Brent took another loss this week. Increased supply is helping to bring down prices, worries about Chinese demand amidst a resurgence of COVID is also at play.

Like this above graphs the natural gas one is also more up to date than the others. But unlike oil, natural gas is back up this week! Gas prices live and die with the weather during the winter season. Last week was warmer than expected and resulted in a price drop, this week was cold and resulted in higher demand and higher priced gas futures.

When oil price drops we usually see lower priced gas and increased demand. But in the graphs that’s not quite what we’re seeing… The price of gasoline remained flat and gasoline stock actually went upwards. Why? Because there’s typically a bit of a lag between oil price, gas price, and gas demand. Perhaps next week we’ll see the effects on stock and price.

The national gas price average has decreased just slightly by 10 cents and now sits at $3.671. Diesel also got cheaper but is still expensive at $5.307. Meanwhile the average price for a gallon of gas in Texas is on the verge of dipping below $3, and is the cheapest in the country.

Here’s a closer look at distillate and propane/propylene stocks this week. Diesel is still having a hard time recovering, although it doesn’t seem to be going any lower, if that’s even possible. Propane on the other hand is soaring, complete opposite situation from that of diesel. As the colder weather encroaches, we can expect propane stocks to dip, as they usually do around this time.

That’s all for this week, have fun celebrating the holidays, drive safe and drink responsibly, cheers!

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