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Welcome to this week’s Thirsty Thursday: An Inventory Report. It’s beginning to feel a lot like… summer? The heat is upon us now and what better way than to kick back with a blended cocktail to cool off? Mix up a May Day and let’s dive into the data for this week.
Crude Oil Stocks
Wow… What more is there to say. I mean a 12.5 million barrel draw is huge! The EIA sure didn’t expect it considering they forecasted a 1 million barrel draw.
Almost equally as odd, the API reported a draw of only 6.8 million barrels, about half of what the EIA reported. They also forecasted a build. Something seems to be going on over at the API…
The last time we saw a draw this large was not too too long ago just back at the end of November. However, prior to that there hasn’t been such a large draw since June of 2019.
Oil and Natural Gas Prices
A tough week for oil prices ended on a strong note as the EIA’s reported draw showed increasing summer demand and shot the price of oil up a few points. Since then it’s withdrawn a bit but remains strong going into the weekend.
Natural gas sky rocketed up to nearly $2.7 early in the week, however, since then has fallen back to around $2.4.
Fuels Market
The draw in oil stocks was likely the result of much of the oil needing to be refined into products such as gasoline for the summer. As people drive, fly, and use other means of transportation the oil stocks across the country drop. Gasoline stocks tend to follow suit and gas prices have an inverse relationship, however, lag behind a few weeks.
Gasoline cheapened nationwide this week, by a whole $0.002. Mississippi is charging on average $3.000 flat for a gallon while California is charging $4.826.
Diesel cheapened too this week by $0.02 on average nationwide. Diesel stocks, or more accurately distillate stocks, continue dropping to very low lows. At this point, it’s getting worrisome. Propane and propylene on the other hand are sitting pretty above their 5-year range.
Crude Oil Imports/Exports
Net crude oil imports were down just over 100K bbl/d from the last reporting period, but remain about 1 MMbbl/d higher than most of April was. This seems to be dominated largely by a drop in exports–imports seem fairly stable.
The overall trend of the last three months seems to be moving away from the zero net import/export mark, but the macro trend towards oil independence still seems to continue.
US Weekly Import/Export Data (May 6-12)
| Product | Imports (Mbbl/d) | Exports (Mbbl/d) | Net (Mbbl/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | 6,860 | 4,310 | 2,550 |
| Other Petroleum Products | 2,022 | 6,496 | -4,474 |
| Total Oil + Products | 8,881 | 10,806 | -1,925 |
US Monthly Import/Export Origin and Destination Data (Month of February 2023)
| Export Destination | Total (Mbbl) | Import Origin | Total (Mbbl) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 32,296 | Canada | 113,636 |
| China | 26,757 | Mexico | 22,108 |
| Canada | 23,704 | Saudi Arabia | 10,863 |
| South Korea | 18,213 | Iraq | 8,352 |
| Japan | 17,326 | Colombia | 5,621 |
That’s it for this week. Get out and enjoy that beautiful spring weather!
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