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Welcome to this week’s Thirsty Thursday: An Inventory Report. If you didn’t already know, yesterday was National Bourbon Day. To celebrate we recommend mixing up a bourbon cocktail called the Maple Bourbon Smash. Now it may be the Canadian in me but I think the maple is delicious in this take on what is essentially an Old Fashioned. Get the recipe here, and let us get going on this week’s numbers.
Crude Oil Stocks
The forecasts from both the API and EIA as well as their reported actuals are all over the place this week. The EIA forecasted a build of 1.5 million barrels and reported 8 million.
Then the API forecasted a draw of 1.3 million barrels and a build of 1 million… Very different forecasts and actuals from the two organizations, but when in doubt trust the EIA.
The bar chart below is the EIA’s past few months of reported builds and draws including the most current week.
Oil and Natural Gas Prices
As is typical for oil prices over the span of a week, they dipped and recovered on the scale of a few dollars. This time around the recovery wasn’t quite as much as the dip as both Brent and WTI fell over $2.
I finally have something good to report about natural gas prices; they jumped by 30 cents! That may not sound like much when compared to the fluctuation in oil prices but that 30-cent change represents a 13.3% change from a week ago.
Fuels Market
Gasoline prices are showing nothing out of the ordinary and remain relatively flat while stocks take another leap.
Gas prices this week actually slightly increased but you probably didn’t notice it at the pumps because it was only a change of 2.5 cents.
As is the trend of late diesel got slightly cheaper by just 1 cent. Distillate stocks continue their trend of 3-week increases which bodes well for the diesel market.
Crude Oil Imports/Exports
Net crude oil imports were down just over 100K bbl/d from the last reporting period, but remain about 1 MMbbl/d higher than most of April. This seems to be dominated largely by a drop in exports–imports seem fairly stable.
Crude oil imports over the short term remain cyclical but over the past 3 years or so show a generally flat trendline. Exports, as of the past several months, have jumped significantly which brings the country’s net imports nearer and nearer to zero; at which point we will officially be an oil net exporting country for the first time.
US Weekly Import/Export Data (Jun 9-15)
| Product | Imports (Mbbl/d) | Exports (Mbbl/d) | Net (Mbbl/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | 6,462 | 3,802 | 2,660 |
| Other Petroleum Products | 2,079 | 6,100 | -4,020 |
| Total Oil + Products | 8,541 | 9,902 | -1,361 |
China overtook Mexico this month in the country receiving the most oil from the US with both countries by far accounting for the top destinations of US crude. Meanwhile, the Netherlands makes a huge jump up to 3rd on the list.
US Monthly Import/Export Origin and Destination Data (Month of March 2023)
| Export Destination | Total (Mbbl) | Import Origin | Total (Mbbl) |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 45,826 | Canada | 137,157 |
| Mexico | 43,791 | Mexico | 28.914 |
| Netherlands | 28,667 | Saudi Arabia | 14,986 |
| Canada | 24,352 | Iraq | 11,394 |
| Japan | 19,614 | Colombia | 6,791 |
The latest month that we have import and export data on where and from those barrels are coming from is now March and while the lag time is significant I still find it interesting as I hope you do!
That’s it for this week. Get out and enjoy that beautiful spring weather!
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