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Welcome to this week’s Thirsty Thursday: An Inventory Report. To all the fathers and father figures out there I wish you a happy Father’s Day! This week’s drink is one of my grandpa’s favorites, a simple whiskey and Coke; more precisely Crown Royal and Coke. Let’s get to it.
Crude Oil Stocks
Let’s first take a look at the EIA’s data, a forecasted build of 1.9 million barrels and a reported draw of nearly 4 million barrels. If you work at the EIA and are reading this, why are the forecasts so off lately? The people, me, want to know.
Whether it be out of luck or reliance on a different set of data the API forecasted a seemingly more accurate draw of 0.5 million barrels against the reported actual draw of 1.25 million barrels of crude.
There is nothing too exciting to note about either figure this week. Crude stocks are smack in the middle of their 5-year range and draws/builds are ebbing and flowing as normal.
Oil and Natural Gas Prices
WTI is currently under $70 USD… Not terrible but oil workers definitely felt a bit more comfort when we were looking at $100+ oil. Brent began and ended the week just under $75 but peaked over $77 a few days ago.
For the second week in a row, the price of natural gas has increased. This week’s jump is 30 cents! Hopefully the beginning of a trend in the right direction.
Fuels Market
For two months or so now the price of gasoline has been very steady despite gasoline stocks rising and falling tens of millions of barrels over the same period. Perhaps a sign of gasoline prices’ stability? Or maybe something else at play.
As I said earlier, gas prices are steady. This week the national average dropped just $0.005. In other news, we have a new leader for the most expensive gas in the country. As long as I have written this weekly report I have never seen Washington State top the charts, but here we are. At $4.948 per gallon, Washington is not the place you want to fill up your gas-guzzling car.
Diesel costs the same as it did last week, however, distillate stocks are rounding the curve and are into the flats this week.
Crude Oil Imports/Exports
Net crude oil imports were down just over 100K bbl/d from the last reporting period, but remain about 1 MMbbl/d higher than most of April. This seems to be dominated largely by a drop in exports–imports seem fairly stable.
Crude oil imports over the short term remain cyclical but over the past 3 years or so show a generally flat trendline. Exports, as of the past several months, have jumped significantly which brings the country’s net imports nearer and nearer to zero; at which point we will officially be an oil net exporting country for the first time.
US Weekly Import/Export Data (Jun 9-15)
| Product | Imports (Mbbl/d) | Exports (Mbbl/d) | Net (Mbbl/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | 6,462 | 3,802 | 2,660 |
| Other Petroleum Products | 2,079 | 6,100 | -4,020 |
| Total Oil + Products | 8,541 | 9,902 | -1,361 |
China overtook Mexico this month in the country receiving the most oil from the US with both countries by far accounting for the top destinations of US crude. Meanwhile, the Netherlands makes a huge jump up to 3rd on the list.
US Monthly Import/Export Origin and Destination Data (Month of March 2023)
| Export Destination | Total (Mbbl) | Import Origin | Total (Mbbl) |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 45,826 | Canada | 137,157 |
| Mexico | 43,791 | Mexico | 28.914 |
| Netherlands | 28,667 | Saudi Arabia | 14,986 |
| Canada | 24,352 | Iraq | 11,394 |
| Japan | 19,614 | Colombia | 6,791 |
The latest month that we have import and export data on where and from those barrels are coming from is now March and while the lag time is significant I still find it interesting as I hope you do!
That’s it for this week. Get out and enjoy that beautiful spring weather!
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